EST vs SB29
Troyes (home) vs Brest · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
EST win 34.1% fair 2.93
Draw 24.7% fair 4.05
SB29 win 41.3% fair 2.42
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 32.1% / 24.4% / 43.5%.
Expected Goals
EST
1.33
—
1.59
SB29
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.0% | fair 2.28 |
| Both teams to score | 58.7% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| EST 1-1 SB29 | 11.4% | |
| EST 1-2 SB29 | 9.1% | |
| EST 0-1 SB29 | 8.5% | |
| EST 2-1 SB29 | 7.6% | |
| EST 1-0 SB29 | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: EST goals · Columns: SB29 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).