EST vs HAC
Troyes (home) vs Le Havre · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
EST win 37.3% fair 2.68
Draw 27.1% fair 3.68
HAC win 35.5% fair 2.81
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 35.9% / 27.4% / 36.7%.
Expected Goals
EST
1.21
—
1.23
HAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.2% | fair 2.26 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.8% | fair 1.79 |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% | fair 2.01 |
Most Likely Scores
| EST 1-1 HAC | 13.0% | |
| EST 0-1 HAC | 10.7% | |
| EST 1-0 HAC | 10.5% | |
| EST 0-0 HAC | 8.7% | |
| EST 1-2 HAC | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.7 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EST goals · Columns: HAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).