EST vs HAC
Troyes (home) vs Le Havre · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
EST win 37.5% fair 2.67
Draw 27.5% fair 3.64
HAC win 35.0% fair 2.86
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 35.6% / 27.9% / 36.5%.
Expected Goals
EST
1.18
—
1.20
HAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.3% | fair 2.37 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57.7% | fair 1.73 |
| Both teams to score | 48.2% | fair 2.07 |
Most Likely Scores
| EST 1-1 HAC | 13.1% | |
| EST 0-1 HAC | 11.2% | |
| EST 1-0 HAC | 11.0% | |
| EST 0-0 HAC | 9.3% | |
| EST 1-2 HAC | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.2 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EST goals · Columns: HAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).