EST vs LMFC
Troyes (home) vs Le Mans · model confidence 66% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
EST win 42.6% fair 2.35
Draw 25.3% fair 3.95
LMFC win 32.1% fair 3.12
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 42.0% / 25.1% / 32.8%.
Expected Goals
EST
1.50
—
1.30
LMFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.0% | fair 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.0% | fair 2.13 |
| Both teams to score | 56.5% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| EST 1-1 LMFC | 11.9% | |
| EST 1-0 LMFC | 9.1% | |
| EST 2-1 LMFC | 8.9% | |
| EST 0-1 LMFC | 7.9% | |
| EST 1-2 LMFC | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.9 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: EST goals · Columns: LMFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).