EST vs LMFC
Troyes (home) vs Le Mans · model confidence 55%
Match Outcome
EST win 45.3% fair 2.21
Draw 25.0% fair 4.00
LMFC win 29.7% fair 3.37
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 45.5% / 24.6% / 29.9%.
Expected Goals
EST
1.60
—
1.25
LMFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.1% | fair 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.9% | fair 2.18 |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| EST 1-1 LMFC | 11.6% | |
| EST 1-0 LMFC | 9.3% | |
| EST 2-1 LMFC | 9.2% | |
| EST 2-0 LMFC | 7.4% | |
| EST 0-1 LMFC | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.6 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: EST goals · Columns: LMFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).