EST vs RCL
Troyes (home) vs Lens · model confidence 68%
Match Outcome
EST win 22.7% fair 4.40
Draw 21.1% fair 4.73
RCL win 56.2% fair 1.78
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 17.6% / 20.0% / 62.4%.
Expected Goals
EST
1.05
—
2.15
RCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.0% | fair 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.0% | fair 2.63 |
| Both teams to score | 57.4% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| EST 1-2 RCL | 9.9% | |
| EST 0-2 RCL | 9.4% | |
| EST 1-1 RCL | 9.2% | |
| EST 0-1 RCL | 8.8% | |
| EST 1-3 RCL | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 2.3 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EST goals · Columns: RCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).