EST vs LIL
Troyes (home) vs Lille · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
EST win 24.2% fair 4.14
Draw 24.4% fair 4.10
LIL win 51.4% fair 1.94
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 20.6% / 24.1% / 55.2%.
Expected Goals
EST
0.93
—
1.69
LIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.5% | fair 1.94 |
| Both teams to score | 49.2% | fair 2.03 |
Most Likely Scores
| EST 0-1 LIL | 12.4% | |
| EST 1-1 LIL | 11.5% | |
| EST 0-2 LIL | 10.4% | |
| EST 1-2 LIL | 9.7% | |
| EST 0-0 LIL | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 12.4 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EST goals · Columns: LIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).