EST vs FCL
Troyes (home) vs Lorient · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
EST win 31.0% fair 3.23
Draw 26.0% fair 3.84
FCL win 43.0% fair 2.33
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 28.4% / 26.0% / 45.6%.
Expected Goals
EST
1.10
—
1.47
FCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.4% | fair 2.11 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.6% | fair 1.90 |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | fair 1.95 |
Most Likely Scores
| EST 1-1 FCL | 12.4% | |
| EST 0-1 FCL | 11.2% | |
| EST 1-2 FCL | 9.1% | |
| EST 1-0 FCL | 8.4% | |
| EST 0-2 FCL | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 11.2 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EST goals · Columns: FCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).