EST vs OL
Troyes (home) vs Lyon · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
EST win 23.9% fair 4.18
Draw 23.6% fair 4.24
OL win 52.5% fair 1.91
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 20.2% / 23.2% / 56.6%.
Expected Goals
EST
0.97
—
1.78
OL
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.9% | fair 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.1% | fair 2.08 |
| Both teams to score | 51.5% | fair 1.94 |
Most Likely Scores
| EST 0-1 OL | 11.4% | |
| EST 1-1 OL | 11.0% | |
| EST 0-2 OL | 10.2% | |
| EST 1-2 OL | 9.8% | |
| EST 0-0 OL | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 11.4 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EST goals · Columns: OL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).