EST vs OL
Troyes (home) vs Lyon · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
EST win 27.2% fair 3.68
Draw 24.0% fair 4.17
OL win 48.9% fair 2.05
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 22.9% / 23.5% / 53.6%.
Expected Goals
EST
1.07
—
1.76
OL
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.8% | fair 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.2% | fair 2.16 |
| Both teams to score | 54.4% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| EST 1-1 OL | 11.1% | |
| EST 0-1 OL | 10.4% | |
| EST 1-2 OL | 9.8% | |
| EST 0-2 OL | 9.2% | |
| EST 1-0 OL | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EST goals · Columns: OL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).