EST vs OM
Troyes (home) vs Marseille · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
EST win 25.4% fair 3.93
Draw 21.8% fair 4.58
OM win 52.7% fair 1.90
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 20.8% / 20.8% / 58.4%.
Expected Goals
EST
1.17
—
2.08
OM
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.0% | fair 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.0% | fair 2.70 |
| Both teams to score | 60.3% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| EST 1-2 OM | 9.8% | |
| EST 1-1 OM | 9.4% | |
| EST 0-2 OM | 8.4% | |
| EST 0-1 OM | 8.1% | |
| EST 1-3 OM | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: EST goals · Columns: OM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).