EST vs ASM
Troyes (home) vs Monaco · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
EST win 26.3% fair 3.80
Draw 23.2% fair 4.32
ASM win 50.5% fair 1.98
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 22.9% / 22.7% / 54.4%.
Expected Goals
EST
1.13
—
1.86
ASM
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.4% | fair 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.6% | fair 2.35 |
| Both teams to score | 57.1% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| EST 1-1 ASM | 10.6% | |
| EST 1-2 ASM | 9.8% | |
| EST 0-1 ASM | 9.4% | |
| EST 0-2 ASM | 8.7% | |
| EST 1-3 ASM | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EST goals · Columns: ASM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).