EST vs OGC
Troyes (home) vs Nice · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
EST win 38.3% fair 2.61
Draw 26.2% fair 3.81
OGC win 35.5% fair 2.82
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 37.0% / 26.3% / 36.7%.
Expected Goals
EST
1.31
—
1.31
OGC
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.6% | fair 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.4% | fair 1.95 |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| EST 1-1 OGC | 12.5% | |
| EST 1-0 OGC | 9.6% | |
| EST 0-1 OGC | 9.5% | |
| EST 2-1 OGC | 8.2% | |
| EST 1-2 OGC | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.5 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EST goals · Columns: OGC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).