EST vs PFC
Troyes (home) vs Paris FC · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
EST win 34.1% fair 2.93
Draw 25.2% fair 3.96
PFC win 40.6% fair 2.46
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 31.4% / 25.0% / 43.6%.
Expected Goals
EST
1.26
—
1.53
PFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.0% | fair 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.0% | fair 2.13 |
| Both teams to score | 56.2% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| EST 1-1 PFC | 11.8% | |
| EST 0-1 PFC | 9.4% | |
| EST 1-2 PFC | 9.1% | |
| EST 1-0 PFC | 7.7% | |
| EST 2-1 PFC | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EST goals · Columns: PFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).