EST vs PFC
Troyes (home) vs Paris FC · model confidence 65% · pregame locked (08-22 · FT 0-0 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
EST win 34.1% fair 2.93
Draw 24.4% fair 4.09
PFC win 41.5% fair 2.41
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 31.2% / 24.0% / 44.8%.
Expected Goals
EST
1.34
—
1.65
PFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.5% | fair 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.5% | fair 2.35 |
| Both teams to score | 59.7% | fair 1.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| EST 1-1 PFC | 11.1% | |
| EST 1-2 PFC | 9.2% | |
| EST 0-1 PFC | 8.3% | |
| EST 2-1 PFC | 7.5% | |
| EST 0-2 PFC | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: EST goals · Columns: PFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).