EST vs PSG
Troyes (home) vs Paris Saint-Germain · model confidence 77% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
EST win 16.5% fair 6.06
Draw 18.7% fair 5.35
PSG win 64.8% fair 1.54
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 12.1% / 17.6% / 70.3%.
Expected Goals
EST
0.85
—
2.32
PSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.5% | fair 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.5% | fair 2.60 |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | fair 1.93 |
Most Likely Scores
| EST 0-2 PSG | 11.3% | |
| EST 0-1 PSG | 9.7% | |
| EST 1-2 PSG | 9.6% | |
| EST 0-3 PSG | 8.7% | |
| EST 1-1 PSG | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 9.7 | 11.3 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 3.7 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 3.1 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EST goals · Columns: PSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).