EST vs REN
Troyes (home) vs Rennes · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
EST win 30.2% fair 3.31
Draw 23.2% fair 4.31
REN win 46.6% fair 2.15
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 26.6% / 22.5% / 50.9%.
Expected Goals
EST
1.30
—
1.88
REN
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.5% | fair 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.5% | fair 2.60 |
| Both teams to score | 61.6% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| EST 1-1 REN | 10.2% | |
| EST 1-2 REN | 9.5% | |
| EST 0-1 REN | 7.8% | |
| EST 0-2 REN | 7.3% | |
| EST 2-1 REN | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: EST goals · Columns: REN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).