EST vs REN
Troyes (home) vs Rennes · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
EST win 26.3% fair 3.80
Draw 21.8% fair 4.58
REN win 51.9% fair 1.93
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 23.0% / 21.1% / 55.9%.
Expected Goals
EST
1.27
—
2.07
REN
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.9% | fair 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.1% | fair 2.85 |
| Both teams to score | 62.8% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| EST 1-2 REN | 9.6% | |
| EST 1-1 REN | 9.3% | |
| EST 0-2 REN | 7.6% | |
| EST 0-1 REN | 7.3% | |
| EST 1-3 REN | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: EST goals · Columns: REN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).