EST vs STR
Troyes (home) vs Strasbourg · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
EST win 31.6% fair 3.16
Draw 23.7% fair 4.22
STR win 44.7% fair 2.24
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 28.4% / 23.1% / 48.4%.
Expected Goals
EST
1.32
—
1.79
STR
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.0% | fair 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.0% | fair 2.50 |
| Both teams to score | 61.0% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| EST 1-1 STR | 10.6% | |
| EST 1-2 STR | 9.4% | |
| EST 0-1 STR | 8.0% | |
| EST 0-2 STR | 7.1% | |
| EST 2-1 STR | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: EST goals · Columns: STR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).