EST vs TFC
Troyes (home) vs Toulouse · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
EST win 30.1% fair 3.33
Draw 24.8% fair 4.03
TFC win 45.1% fair 2.22
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 27.3% / 24.6% / 48.0%.
Expected Goals
EST
1.16
—
1.62
TFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | fair 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.4% | fair 2.11 |
| Both teams to score | 55.1% | fair 1.82 |
Most Likely Scores
| EST 1-1 TFC | 11.7% | |
| EST 0-1 TFC | 10.0% | |
| EST 1-2 TFC | 9.4% | |
| EST 0-2 TFC | 8.1% | |
| EST 1-0 TFC | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 10.0 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EST goals · Columns: TFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).