ATA vs BOL
Atalanta (home) vs Bologna · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
ATA win 48.1% fair 2.08
Draw 25.0% fair 4.00
BOL win 26.9% fair 3.71
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 49.0% / 24.7% / 26.3%.
Expected Goals
ATA
1.62
—
1.12
BOL
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.6% | fair 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.4% | fair 2.07 |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATA 1-1 BOL | 11.7% | |
| ATA 1-0 BOL | 10.5% | |
| ATA 2-1 BOL | 9.5% | |
| ATA 2-0 BOL | 8.5% | |
| ATA 0-1 BOL | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.7 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATA goals · Columns: BOL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).