ATA vs CAG
Atalanta (home) vs Cagliari · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
ATA win 54.3% fair 1.84
Draw 23.7% fair 4.22
CAG win 22.0% fair 4.55
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 56.2% / 23.2% / 20.6%.
Expected Goals
ATA
1.78
—
0.98
CAG
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% | fair 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.9% | fair 2.09 |
| Both teams to score | 51.9% | fair 1.93 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATA 1-0 CAG | 11.3% | |
| ATA 1-1 CAG | 11.0% | |
| ATA 2-0 CAG | 10.0% | |
| ATA 2-1 CAG | 9.8% | |
| ATA 0-0 CAG | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.0 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATA goals · Columns: CAG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).