ATA vs COM
Atalanta (home) vs Como · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATA win 34.4% fair 2.91
Draw 25.0% fair 4.00
COM win 40.6% fair 2.46
Expected Goals
ATA
1.34
—
1.53
COM
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | fair 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.1% | fair 2.22 |
| Both teams to score | 58.0% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATA 1-1 COM | 11.6% | |
| ATA 1-2 COM | 8.9% | |
| ATA 0-1 COM | 8.6% | |
| ATA 2-1 COM | 7.8% | |
| ATA 1-0 COM | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.6 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATA goals · Columns: COM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).