ATA vs FIO
Atalanta (home) vs Fiorentina · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATA win 57.8% fair 1.73
Draw 21.6% fair 4.64
FIO win 20.6% fair 4.85
Expected Goals
ATA
2.05
—
1.08
FIO
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.6% | fair 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.4% | fair 2.54 |
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATA 2-1 FIO | 9.9% | |
| ATA 1-1 FIO | 9.7% | |
| ATA 2-0 FIO | 9.2% | |
| ATA 1-0 FIO | 8.9% | |
| ATA 3-1 FIO | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATA goals · Columns: FIO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).