ATA vs FRO
Atalanta (home) vs Frosinone · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
ATA win 60.8% fair 1.64
Draw 21.7% fair 4.60
FRO win 17.4% fair 5.74
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 65.4% / 20.5% / 14.2%.
Expected Goals
ATA
2.00
—
0.80
FRO
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | fair 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.9% | fair 2.13 |
| Both teams to score | 47.7% | fair 2.10 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATA 1-0 FRO | 12.1% | |
| ATA 2-0 FRO | 12.1% | |
| ATA 1-1 FRO | 9.7% | |
| ATA 2-1 FRO | 9.7% | |
| ATA 3-0 FRO | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATA goals · Columns: FRO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).