ATA vs GEN
Atalanta (home) vs Genoa · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATA win 56.6% fair 1.77
Draw 22.6% fair 4.43
GEN win 20.8% fair 4.80
Expected Goals
ATA
1.91
—
1.01
GEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | fair 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.0% | fair 2.27 |
| Both teams to score | 54.3% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATA 1-1 GEN | 10.4% | |
| ATA 1-0 GEN | 10.3% | |
| ATA 2-1 GEN | 9.9% | |
| ATA 2-0 GEN | 9.8% | |
| ATA 3-1 GEN | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATA goals · Columns: GEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).