ATA vs GEN
Atalanta (home) vs Genoa · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
ATA win 55.5% fair 1.80
Draw 23.4% fair 4.28
GEN win 21.1% fair 4.73
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 57.6% / 22.8% / 19.6%.
Expected Goals
ATA
1.82
—
0.96
GEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.5% | fair 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.5% | fair 2.11 |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | fair 1.94 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATA 1-0 GEN | 11.3% | |
| ATA 1-1 GEN | 10.8% | |
| ATA 2-0 GEN | 10.3% | |
| ATA 2-1 GEN | 9.9% | |
| ATA 3-0 GEN | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.8 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATA goals · Columns: GEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).