ATA vs JUV
Atalanta (home) vs Juventus · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATA win 38.8% fair 2.58
Draw 25.3% fair 3.95
JUV win 35.9% fair 2.79
Expected Goals
ATA
1.44
—
1.39
JUV
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.6% | fair 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.4% | fair 2.16 |
| Both teams to score | 57.2% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATA 1-1 JUV | 11.8% | |
| ATA 1-0 JUV | 8.5% | |
| ATA 2-1 JUV | 8.5% | |
| ATA 0-1 JUV | 8.2% | |
| ATA 1-2 JUV | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.8 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATA goals · Columns: JUV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).