ATA vs LAZ
Atalanta (home) vs Lazio · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATA win 41.4% fair 2.42
Draw 25.6% fair 3.90
LAZ win 33.0% fair 3.03
Expected Goals
ATA
1.46
—
1.28
LAZ
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.6% | fair 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.4% | fair 2.07 |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATA 1-1 LAZ | 12.1% | |
| ATA 1-0 LAZ | 9.4% | |
| ATA 2-1 LAZ | 8.8% | |
| ATA 0-1 LAZ | 8.3% | |
| ATA 1-2 LAZ | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.1 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATA goals · Columns: LAZ goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).