ATA vs LEC
Atalanta (home) vs Lecce · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATA win 58.5% fair 1.71
Draw 22.3% fair 4.48
LEC win 19.2% fair 5.21
Expected Goals
ATA
1.92
—
0.93
LEC
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.3% | fair 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.7% | fair 2.19 |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | fair 1.93 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATA 1-0 LEC | 11.1% | |
| ATA 2-0 LEC | 10.6% | |
| ATA 1-1 LEC | 10.3% | |
| ATA 2-1 LEC | 9.9% | |
| ATA 3-0 LEC | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATA goals · Columns: LEC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).