ATA vs MIL
Atalanta (home) vs AC Milan · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATA win 36.3% fair 2.76
Draw 25.0% fair 4.00
MIL win 38.7% fair 2.58
Expected Goals
ATA
1.40
—
1.49
MIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.2% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.8% | fair 2.23 |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATA 1-1 MIL | 11.6% | |
| ATA 1-2 MIL | 8.6% | |
| ATA 0-1 MIL | 8.3% | |
| ATA 2-1 MIL | 8.1% | |
| ATA 1-0 MIL | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATA goals · Columns: MIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).