ATA vs MON
Atalanta (home) vs Monza · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATA win 60.2% fair 1.66
Draw 20.3% fair 4.92
MON win 19.4% fair 5.14
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 63.3% / 19.2% / 17.5%.
Expected Goals
ATA
2.27
—
1.11
MON
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.7% | fair 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.3% | fair 2.91 |
| Both teams to score | 60.2% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATA 2-1 MON | 9.7% | |
| ATA 2-0 MON | 8.7% | |
| ATA 1-1 MON | 8.6% | |
| ATA 1-0 MON | 7.7% | |
| ATA 3-1 MON | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATA goals · Columns: MON goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).