ATA vs NAP
Atalanta (home) vs Napoli · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATA win 37.0% fair 2.70
Draw 25.0% fair 4.00
NAP win 38.0% fair 2.63
Expected Goals
ATA
1.42
—
1.47
NAP
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.3% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.7% | fair 2.24 |
| Both teams to score | 58.5% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATA 1-1 NAP | 11.6% | |
| ATA 1-2 NAP | 8.5% | |
| ATA 2-1 NAP | 8.2% | |
| ATA 0-1 NAP | 8.1% | |
| ATA 1-0 NAP | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATA goals · Columns: NAP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).