ATA vs NAP
Atalanta (home) vs Napoli · model confidence 80%
Match Outcome
ATA win 37.3% fair 2.68
Draw 26.2% fair 3.82
NAP win 36.5% fair 2.74
Expected Goals
ATA
1.32
—
1.34
NAP
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.7% | fair 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.3% | fair 1.99 |
| Both teams to score | 54.1% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATA 1-1 NAP | 12.4% | |
| ATA 0-1 NAP | 9.3% | |
| ATA 1-0 NAP | 9.3% | |
| ATA 1-2 NAP | 8.3% | |
| ATA 2-1 NAP | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATA goals · Columns: NAP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).