ATA vs PAR
Atalanta (home) vs Parma · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
ATA win 54.9% fair 1.82
Draw 25.0% fair 4.00
PAR win 20.0% fair 4.99
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 57.0% / 24.7% / 18.3%.
Expected Goals
ATA
1.62
—
0.80
PAR
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.5% | fair 2.30 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.5% | fair 1.77 |
| Both teams to score | 44.1% | fair 2.27 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATA 1-0 PAR | 14.4% | |
| ATA 2-0 PAR | 11.7% | |
| ATA 1-1 PAR | 11.5% | |
| ATA 2-1 PAR | 9.3% | |
| ATA 0-0 PAR | 8.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 11.5 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATA goals · Columns: PAR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).