ATA vs PAR
Atalanta (home) vs Parma · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATA win 57.7% fair 1.73
Draw 23.3% fair 4.29
PAR win 19.0% fair 5.25
Expected Goals
ATA
1.80
—
0.86
PAR
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.4% | fair 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.6% | fair 1.98 |
| Both teams to score | 48.0% | fair 2.08 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATA 1-0 PAR | 12.7% | |
| ATA 2-0 PAR | 11.4% | |
| ATA 1-1 PAR | 10.8% | |
| ATA 2-1 PAR | 9.7% | |
| ATA 0-0 PAR | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 10.8 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATA goals · Columns: PAR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).