ATA vs ROM
Atalanta (home) vs Roma · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATA win 31.0% fair 3.23
Draw 24.4% fair 4.11
ROM win 44.7% fair 2.24
Expected Goals
ATA
1.29
—
1.66
ROM
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.6% | fair 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.4% | fair 2.30 |
| Both teams to score | 58.7% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATA 1-1 ROM | 11.2% | |
| ATA 1-2 ROM | 9.3% | |
| ATA 0-1 ROM | 8.7% | |
| ATA 2-1 ROM | 7.2% | |
| ATA 0-2 ROM | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATA goals · Columns: ROM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).