ATA vs SAS
Atalanta (home) vs Sassuolo · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
ATA win 52.5% fair 1.91
Draw 23.7% fair 4.21
SAS win 23.8% fair 4.21
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 54.1% / 23.2% / 22.6%.
Expected Goals
ATA
1.79
—
1.07
SAS
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.5% | fair 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.5% | fair 2.20 |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATA 1-1 SAS | 11.0% | |
| ATA 1-0 SAS | 10.2% | |
| ATA 2-1 SAS | 9.8% | |
| ATA 2-0 SAS | 9.2% | |
| ATA 0-1 SAS | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.0 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATA goals · Columns: SAS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).