ATA vs SAS
Atalanta (home) vs Sassuolo · model confidence 76% · pregame locked (08-23 · FT 2-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
ATA win 52.0% fair 1.92
Draw 23.9% fair 4.18
SAS win 24.1% fair 4.15
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 53.6% / 23.4% / 23.0%.
Expected Goals
ATA
1.77
—
1.08
SAS
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.1% | fair 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.9% | fair 2.18 |
| Both teams to score | 54.7% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATA 1-1 SAS | 11.1% | |
| ATA 1-0 SAS | 10.3% | |
| ATA 2-1 SAS | 9.8% | |
| ATA 2-0 SAS | 9.1% | |
| ATA 0-1 SAS | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.1 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATA goals · Columns: SAS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).