ATA vs TOR
Atalanta (home) vs Torino · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATA win 54.2% fair 1.84
Draw 22.1% fair 4.52
TOR win 23.6% fair 4.23
Expected Goals
ATA
2.01
—
1.21
TOR
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.5% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.5% | fair 2.66 |
| Both teams to score | 60.9% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATA 2-1 TOR | 9.8% | |
| ATA 1-1 TOR | 9.7% | |
| ATA 2-0 TOR | 8.0% | |
| ATA 1-0 TOR | 8.0% | |
| ATA 3-1 TOR | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATA goals · Columns: TOR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).