ATA vs UDI
Atalanta (home) vs Udinese · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATA win 55.6% fair 1.80
Draw 22.0% fair 4.54
UDI win 22.3% fair 4.48
Expected Goals
ATA
2.01
—
1.15
UDI
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.1% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.9% | fair 2.57 |
| Both teams to score | 59.1% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATA 2-1 UDI | 9.9% | |
| ATA 1-1 UDI | 9.8% | |
| ATA 2-0 UDI | 8.6% | |
| ATA 1-0 UDI | 8.6% | |
| ATA 3-1 UDI | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATA goals · Columns: UDI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).