ATA vs VEN
Atalanta (home) vs Venezia · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
ATA win 60.5% fair 1.65
Draw 21.7% fair 4.60
VEN win 17.8% fair 5.62
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 64.9% / 20.5% / 14.6%.
Expected Goals
ATA
2.02
—
0.83
VEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.2% | fair 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.8% | fair 2.18 |
| Both teams to score | 49.0% | fair 2.04 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATA 2-0 VEN | 11.8% | |
| ATA 1-0 VEN | 11.7% | |
| ATA 2-1 VEN | 9.8% | |
| ATA 1-1 VEN | 9.7% | |
| ATA 3-0 VEN | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATA goals · Columns: VEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).