BOL vs ATA
Bologna (home) vs Atalanta · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BOL win 39.9% fair 2.51
Draw 25.3% fair 3.95
ATA win 34.8% fair 2.87
Expected Goals
BOL
1.46
—
1.36
ATA
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.5% | fair 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.5% | fair 2.15 |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOL 1-1 ATA | 11.8% | |
| BOL 1-0 ATA | 8.7% | |
| BOL 2-1 ATA | 8.6% | |
| BOL 0-1 ATA | 8.1% | |
| BOL 1-2 ATA | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.8 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOL goals · Columns: ATA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).