BOL vs CAG
Bologna (home) vs Cagliari · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BOL win 50.4% fair 1.99
Draw 25.1% fair 3.98
CAG win 24.5% fair 4.08
Expected Goals
BOL
1.61
—
1.01
CAG
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.7% | fair 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.3% | fair 1.95 |
| Both teams to score | 50.9% | fair 1.97 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOL 1-1 CAG | 11.8% | |
| BOL 1-0 CAG | 11.7% | |
| BOL 2-1 CAG | 9.5% | |
| BOL 2-0 CAG | 9.4% | |
| BOL 0-1 CAG | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.8 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOL goals · Columns: CAG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).