BOL vs FIO
Bologna (home) vs Fiorentina · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BOL win 53.1% fair 1.88
Draw 23.7% fair 4.21
FIO win 23.2% fair 4.31
Expected Goals
BOL
1.78
—
1.05
FIO
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.6% | fair 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.4% | fair 2.15 |
| Both teams to score | 53.9% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOL 1-1 FIO | 11.1% | |
| BOL 1-0 FIO | 10.6% | |
| BOL 2-1 FIO | 9.8% | |
| BOL 2-0 FIO | 9.4% | |
| BOL 0-1 FIO | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.1 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOL goals · Columns: FIO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).