BOL vs FRO
Bologna (home) vs Frosinone · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BOL win 52.8% fair 1.89
Draw 23.6% fair 4.23
FRO win 23.5% fair 4.25
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 54.7% / 23.1% / 22.2%.
Expected Goals
BOL
1.81
—
1.06
FRO
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.7% | fair 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.3% | fair 2.21 |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOL 1-1 FRO | 10.9% | |
| BOL 1-0 FRO | 10.2% | |
| BOL 2-1 FRO | 9.8% | |
| BOL 2-0 FRO | 9.2% | |
| BOL 0-1 FRO | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.9 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOL goals · Columns: FRO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).