BOL vs GEN
Bologna (home) vs Genoa · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BOL win 51.9% fair 1.93
Draw 24.7% fair 4.04
GEN win 23.3% fair 4.29
Expected Goals
BOL
1.65
—
0.98
GEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | fair 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
| Both teams to score | 50.5% | fair 1.98 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOL 1-0 GEN | 11.9% | |
| BOL 1-1 GEN | 11.6% | |
| BOL 2-0 GEN | 9.8% | |
| BOL 2-1 GEN | 9.6% | |
| BOL 0-0 GEN | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.6 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOL goals · Columns: GEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).