BOL vs INT
Bologna (home) vs Inter Milan · model confidence 84% · pregame locked (10-17 · FT 1-3 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
BOL win 23.6% fair 4.23
Draw 21.8% fair 4.60
INT win 54.6% fair 1.83
Expected Goals
BOL
1.19
—
2.04
INT
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.6% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.4% | fair 2.67 |
| Both teams to score | 60.5% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOL 1-2 INT | 9.8% | |
| BOL 1-1 INT | 9.6% | |
| BOL 0-2 INT | 8.3% | |
| BOL 0-1 INT | 8.1% | |
| BOL 1-3 INT | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOL goals · Columns: INT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).