BOL vs JUV
Bologna (home) vs Juventus · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BOL win 35.1% fair 2.85
Draw 26.5% fair 3.78
JUV win 38.4% fair 2.60
Expected Goals
BOL
1.24
—
1.35
JUV
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.8% | fair 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.2% | fair 1.92 |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | fair 1.90 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOL 1-1 JUV | 12.6% | |
| BOL 0-1 JUV | 10.1% | |
| BOL 1-0 JUV | 9.3% | |
| BOL 1-2 JUV | 8.5% | |
| BOL 2-1 JUV | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.1 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOL goals · Columns: JUV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).