BOL vs LAZ
Bologna (home) vs Lazio · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
BOL win 42.5% fair 2.35
Draw 26.7% fair 3.75
LAZ win 30.8% fair 3.24
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 42.5% / 26.6% / 30.8%.
Expected Goals
BOL
1.38
—
1.14
LAZ
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.1% | fair 2.17 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.9% | fair 1.85 |
| Both teams to score | 50.8% | fair 1.97 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOL 1-1 LAZ | 12.7% | |
| BOL 1-0 LAZ | 11.1% | |
| BOL 0-1 LAZ | 9.2% | |
| BOL 2-1 LAZ | 8.7% | |
| BOL 0-0 LAZ | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOL goals · Columns: LAZ goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).