BOL vs LAZ
Bologna (home) vs Lazio · model confidence 78% · pregame locked (08-24 · FT 0-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
BOL win 44.5% fair 2.25
Draw 26.0% fair 3.85
LAZ win 29.5% fair 3.39
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 44.9% / 25.8% / 29.3%.
Expected Goals
BOL
1.48
—
1.14
LAZ
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.7% | fair 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.3% | fair 1.95 |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | fair 1.90 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOL 1-1 LAZ | 12.3% | |
| BOL 1-0 LAZ | 10.8% | |
| BOL 2-1 LAZ | 9.1% | |
| BOL 0-1 LAZ | 8.3% | |
| BOL 2-0 LAZ | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOL goals · Columns: LAZ goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).