BOL vs LEC
Bologna (home) vs Lecce · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BOL win 53.8% fair 1.86
Draw 24.7% fair 4.05
LEC win 21.5% fair 4.64
Expected Goals
BOL
1.66
—
0.90
LEC
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.2% | fair 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.8% | fair 1.89 |
| Both teams to score | 48.1% | fair 2.08 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOL 1-0 LEC | 12.8% | |
| BOL 1-1 LEC | 11.6% | |
| BOL 2-0 LEC | 10.6% | |
| BOL 2-1 LEC | 9.6% | |
| BOL 0-0 LEC | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.6 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOL goals · Columns: LEC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).