BOL vs MIL
Bologna (home) vs AC Milan · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BOL win 32.7% fair 3.05
Draw 26.0% fair 3.85
MIL win 41.3% fair 2.42
Expected Goals
BOL
1.21
—
1.44
MIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.5% | fair 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.5% | fair 1.98 |
| Both teams to score | 53.6% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOL 1-1 MIL | 12.3% | |
| BOL 0-1 MIL | 10.1% | |
| BOL 1-2 MIL | 8.9% | |
| BOL 1-0 MIL | 8.5% | |
| BOL 2-1 MIL | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOL goals · Columns: MIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).