BOL vs MON
Bologna (home) vs Monza · model confidence 69%
Match Outcome
BOL win 55.9% fair 1.79
Draw 23.0% fair 4.35
MON win 21.1% fair 4.73
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 59.0% / 22.1% / 18.9%.
Expected Goals
BOL
1.90
—
0.97
MON
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.6% | fair 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.4% | fair 2.20 |
| Both teams to score | 52.8% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOL 1-0 MON | 10.8% | |
| BOL 1-1 MON | 10.5% | |
| BOL 2-0 MON | 10.2% | |
| BOL 2-1 MON | 9.9% | |
| BOL 3-0 MON | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOL goals · Columns: MON goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).