BOL vs MON
Bologna (home) vs Monza · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BOL win 55.5% fair 1.80
Draw 22.5% fair 4.45
MON win 22.0% fair 4.55
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 57.8% / 21.7% / 20.5%.
Expected Goals
BOL
1.96
—
1.08
MON
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.6% | fair 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.4% | fair 2.41 |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOL 1-1 MON | 10.1% | |
| BOL 2-1 MON | 9.9% | |
| BOL 1-0 MON | 9.4% | |
| BOL 2-0 MON | 9.2% | |
| BOL 3-1 MON | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.1 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOL goals · Columns: MON goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).