BOL vs NAP
Bologna (home) vs Napoli · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BOL win 33.4% fair 3.00
Draw 26.0% fair 3.85
NAP win 40.6% fair 2.46
Expected Goals
BOL
1.23
—
1.43
NAP
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.6% | fair 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.4% | fair 1.98 |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOL 1-1 NAP | 12.3% | |
| BOL 0-1 NAP | 10.0% | |
| BOL 1-2 NAP | 8.8% | |
| BOL 1-0 NAP | 8.6% | |
| BOL 2-1 NAP | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOL goals · Columns: NAP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).