BOL vs PAR
Bologna (home) vs Parma · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BOL win 53.0% fair 1.89
Draw 25.7% fair 3.89
PAR win 21.2% fair 4.71
Expected Goals
BOL
1.55
—
0.83
PAR
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.5% | fair 2.35 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57.5% | fair 1.74 |
| Both teams to score | 44.4% | fair 2.25 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOL 1-0 PAR | 14.3% | |
| BOL 1-1 PAR | 11.9% | |
| BOL 2-0 PAR | 11.1% | |
| BOL 0-0 PAR | 9.2% | |
| BOL 2-1 PAR | 9.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 11.9 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOL goals · Columns: PAR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).