BOL vs ROM
Bologna (home) vs Roma · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BOL win 27.9% fair 3.58
Draw 25.0% fair 4.00
ROM win 47.1% fair 2.12
Expected Goals
BOL
1.12
—
1.61
ROM
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.2% | fair 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.8% | fair 2.05 |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOL 1-1 ROM | 11.8% | |
| BOL 0-1 ROM | 10.5% | |
| BOL 1-2 ROM | 9.5% | |
| BOL 0-2 ROM | 8.5% | |
| BOL 1-0 ROM | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOL goals · Columns: ROM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).