BOL vs SAS
Bologna (home) vs Sassuolo · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
BOL win 47.2% fair 2.12
Draw 24.7% fair 4.04
SAS win 28.1% fair 3.56
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 48.0% / 24.4% / 27.6%.
Expected Goals
BOL
1.64
—
1.19
SAS
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.9% | fair 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.1% | fair 2.17 |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOL 1-1 SAS | 11.5% | |
| BOL 1-0 SAS | 9.7% | |
| BOL 2-1 SAS | 9.5% | |
| BOL 2-0 SAS | 8.0% | |
| BOL 0-1 SAS | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.5 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOL goals · Columns: SAS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).