BOL vs TOR
Bologna (home) vs Torino · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
BOL win 53.1% fair 1.88
Draw 23.1% fair 4.34
TOR win 23.8% fair 4.20
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 54.9% / 22.4% / 22.7%.
Expected Goals
BOL
1.88
—
1.13
TOR
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.1% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.9% | fair 2.38 |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOL 1-1 TOR | 10.5% | |
| BOL 2-1 TOR | 9.8% | |
| BOL 1-0 TOR | 9.2% | |
| BOL 2-0 TOR | 8.7% | |
| BOL 3-1 TOR | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOL goals · Columns: TOR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).