BOL vs UDI
Bologna (home) vs Udinese · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BOL win 50.9% fair 1.96
Draw 24.0% fair 4.16
UDI win 25.0% fair 4.00
Expected Goals
BOL
1.74
—
1.11
UDI
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.2% | fair 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.8% | fair 2.18 |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOL 1-1 UDI | 11.2% | |
| BOL 1-0 UDI | 10.1% | |
| BOL 2-1 UDI | 9.7% | |
| BOL 2-0 UDI | 8.7% | |
| BOL 0-1 UDI | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.2 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOL goals · Columns: UDI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).