BOL vs UDI
Bologna (home) vs Udinese · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
BOL win 45.1% fair 2.22
Draw 25.4% fair 3.93
UDI win 29.5% fair 3.39
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 45.6% / 25.2% / 29.3%.
Expected Goals
BOL
1.54
—
1.19
UDI
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.4% | fair 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.6% | fair 2.06 |
| Both teams to score | 54.6% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOL 1-1 UDI | 11.9% | |
| BOL 1-0 UDI | 10.1% | |
| BOL 2-1 UDI | 9.2% | |
| BOL 2-0 UDI | 7.8% | |
| BOL 0-1 UDI | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.9 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOL goals · Columns: UDI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).